In her role as Shadow Exchequer Secretary, Catherine spoke to an Opposition amendment to the Finance Bill yesterday (18th April), effectively calling on the Government to rethink their decision to cut the 50p top rate of tax this month. The amendment was defeated by the Government. Catherine’s speech is here:
Catherine McKinnell: It is a pleasure, Ms Primarolo, to serve under your chairmanship this morning. I shall speak to the Opposition amendment to clause 1 and about clause 16, which relate to income tax rates and reliefs.
The Opposition believe that politics is about priorities—about providing support to those who need it most, rather than to those with the broadest shoulders. This has never been more the case than in the country’s current economic climate—a parlous economic climate which, let us remind ourselves, has seen just 0.8% growth since autumn 2010, compared with the 5.3% that was forecast at the time. The economy continues to stagnate under this Government, leading to the independent Office for Budget Responsibility halving its predictions for 2013 and anticipating growth of only 0.6% this year, compared with the 1.2% forecast just four months ago.
We have surely now reached the stage where we must ask ourselves what further evidence the Chancellor needs before he accepts that his economic plan is catastrophically failing. Once again, I note the lack of Conservative Members on the Government Benches. Perhaps Back Benchers are demonstrating their lack of confidence in the Chancellor’s plan which, I am sure they would agree, is far from acceptable.
The latest criticism of this failure came on Tuesday, with the International Monetary Fund downgrading its forecast for UK economic growth to 0.7%, in contrast to its view a month ago, when the IMF said that growth of 1% could be expected. Having subjected the UK to the biggest downgrade of any developed country for 2013 and 2014, the IMF commented:
“In the United Kingdom, the recovery is progressing slowly, notably in the context of weak external demand and ongoing fiscal consolidation.”
It went on to say:
“Greater near-term flexibility in the path of fiscal adjustment should be considered in the light of lacklustre private demand”.
In simple terms, it is time for plan B.
Alex Cunningham (Stockton North) (Lab): I am grateful to my hon. Friend and fellow north-east MP for giving way. Does she share my view that yesterday’s unemployment figures showing an increase of 70,000 were disgraceful? The north-east of England has suffered a disproportionate increase in unemployment, and 12,000 of those 70,000 are from the region that she and I both represent. Does she agree that this is further evidence of the need for change, particularly in regions such as the one we share?
Catherine McKinnell: I very much share the deep concern expressed by my hon. Friend about the figures published yesterday. I hope the Chancellor will start to pay attention to the effect that his economic plan is having on people throughout the country but, I agree, particularly in the north-east, where unemployment is above 10%, which is a shocking figure and spells deep trouble for the long-term entrenchment of unemployment. I will come to that shortly.
As we have heard so often from this out-of-touch Chancellor, he is not for turning, despite the fact that the consequence of his economic failure means that Government borrowing is rising, not falling, with the Tory-led coalition set to borrow £245 billon more than it forecast in autumn 2010. His promise to balance the books by 2015 will not be met and the national debt will not fall until 2017-18 at the earliest. Who knows how many times that will need to be pushed back before the Chancellor realises that his plan is not working?
Of course, that dire situation has led to the downgrading of Britain’s triple A rating by Moody’s and the more recent decision by Fitch to place the UK on rating watch negative, both of which had been prized by the Chancellor and used as cover for the austerity measures he introduced back in 2010.
At a time when living standards are being squeezed, average earnings are rising at their lowest rate since the end of 2009, Government borrowing is up, growth forecasts have been downgraded again, the public services on which people rely are being cut or threatened up and down the country, and ordinary people are being asked to pay the price for the Chancellor’s economic failure, what we needed was a Budget that was on the side of ordinary, hard-working people and families, increasing numbers of whom are clearly struggling to make ends meet.
As my hon. Friend the Member for Stockton North (Alex Cunningham) noted, unemployment is rising again. What we needed was a Budget that would back Labour’s jobs guarantee, using money raised from the tax on bank bonuses to fund a guaranteed job—a real job—for every young person who has been out of work for a year or more. I am not sure whether Government Members have had a chance to analyse the long-term unemployment figures published yesterday, but I can tell them that in March this year 167,345 adults over the age of 25 had been claiming jobseeker’s allowance for more than 24 months. Let me repeat that figure: 167,345 adults had been out of work for more than two years, compared with 84,765 in February 2012 and 52,895 in February 2011. That is a disturbing rise of 97% since February 2012 and 216% since February 2011.
Targeted and urgent action is required if the unemployment situation is not to become dangerously entrenched. We believe that it is a totally unacceptable state of affairs and that action is needed now to stop people being put on the scrap heap and left there, as they were under the previous Conservative Government—and, of course, so that we do not continue building up long-term costs for the taxpayer.
What we needed from the Budget was a reversal of the Government’s decision to stop tax relief on pension contributions for people earning over £150,000 being limited to 20% to fund Labour’s compulsory jobs guarantee for long-term unemployed adults.
Stephen Williams (Bristol West) (LD): Perhaps the hon. Lady will remind us of the maximum amount of pension relief an individual could get right up to April 2010, or perhaps a little later. In case she does not know, someone could put just over a quarter of a million pounds a year into their pension fund and get higher-rate tax relief, including at 50%. This Government have lowered that figure to £40,000.
Catherine McKinnell: I said that the Budget needed to be about priorities and that we need to look now at how to help people struggling on the lowest incomes and ensure that those with the broadest shoulders bear the greatest burden. In government, Labour took steps to ensure that its pension reliefs were fair to those at the bottom as well as those at the top. This Government have reversed that decision to limit the relief to 20%, and we have seen the result: the impact across the board is being unfairly borne by those at the bottom. When times are as tough as they are now, it cannot be right to subsidise the pension contributions of the top 2% of earners at more than double the rate for people on average incomes who pay the basic rate of tax. However, the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats clearly believe that the time is right to prioritise those earning more than £150,000.
What we got in this year’s Budget, and in the very first clause of the Finance Bill, is the coalition’s unjustifiable and grossly unfair decision to reduce the top rate of income tax from 50p to 45p, a cut that benefits just 267,000 people earning more than £150,000, 13,000 of whom are lucky enough to earn more than £1 million. Indeed, those lucky few are receiving an average tax cut of a whopping £107,000 according to HMRC figures. Who wants to bung a millionaire indeed?
I have no doubt that at this juncture Liberal Democrat Members will want to trumpet the increase in the personal allowance—to pipe up and explain that they are not prioritising the richest in society over those who genuinely need support, but unfortunately for them the facts state otherwise. Let us remind ourselves of the analysis of figures published by the independent Institute for Fiscal Studies. It shows that taking into account all the changes to tax credits and benefits introduced since 2010, households in the UK will, on average, be a staggering £891, or £17 a week, worse off this financial year.
Stephen Williams indicated dissent.
Catherine McKinnell: The hon. Gentleman is chuntering from a sedentary position. Does he wish to intervene?
Stephen Williams: If you are going to quote from independent reports, you should not quote—
The Second Deputy Chairman of Ways and Means (Dawn Primarolo): Order. I am not quoting anything.
Stephen Williams: The hon. Lady should not quote from reports selectively. Perhaps she should go on to say that the Institute for Fiscal Studies says that the top decile of income earners has been hit hardest by the combination of Government tax changes.
Catherine McKinnell: I suggest that the hon. Gentleman is quoting selectively in leaving out the fact that the greatest impact is on the bottom decile of earners. When you take the cuts and changes overall, those at the bottom bear the greatest proportional brunt.
Debbie Abrahams (Oldham East and Saddleworth) (Lab): I want to support what my hon. Friend has said. The Chancellor’s own distributional analysis shows that the cumulative impact of tax, tax credit and benefit measures mean net reductions in income for the poorest 4% of households. That is not selective analysis—your own Chancellor’s analysis shows that 40% of the poorest households will be affected.
Catherine McKinnell: It is the hon. Gentleman’s own Chancellor who is quoting selectively from the figures. I thank my hon. Friend for that intervention.
The facts are clear, and beyond the facts is the reality facing households up and down the country. We see people from those households coming into our constituency surgeries week in, week out. We hear stories every day from families who are clearly struggling to make ends meet.
The reality of the Chancellor’s failing plan is bearing out, not just in the statistics but in the reality of people’s day-to-day lives. The cuts to tax credits and child benefit, the granny tax, the mummy tax, the appalling bedroom tax and the huge hike in VAT, which disproportionately impacts on the poorest, hugely outweigh any small benefit from the rise in the personal allowance.
Yasmin Qureshi (Bolton South East) (Lab): My hon. Friend is making an excellent case about all the various cuts and how they are hitting the most vulnerable in our society. Do you think that the Government should be shedding tears for all those people who will be suffering from all the cuts?
The Second Deputy Chairman: Order. May I remind hon. Members that they are not asking the Chair of this Committee to answer questions or accusing the Chair of anything? The use of the word “you” addresses the Chair directly. It would be good practice to refer to “hon. Members” or “my hon. Friend” rather than using the word “you”, which makes things difficult.
Catherine McKinnell: Even some mild empathy from the Chancellor for those bearing the brunt of his catastrophically failing economic plan would be welcome to people up and down the country, who feel that he is extremely out of touch with the reality that they face.
To put the issue into context for Government Members, who have willingly voted through this year’s changes, I should say that a two-earner couple with children are losing on average £1,869. The average single parent in work will lose £1,226. A two-earner couple with no children will be £672 worse off, while a one-earner family with children will lose an average of £4,000 in 2013-14. Even worse, this is happening at the same time as 13,000 millionaires are getting a tax cut from this Government worth an average of £107,000. Worst of all, but not surprising given this Government’s shocking attitude towards women, is research showing that 94% of the cuts to household budgets will directly hit women, while 85% of those on incomes over £150,000—so 85% of those who are benefiting from the Government’s tax cut—are men.
That sums up the coalition’s warped sense of priorities in a nutshell—looking after those at the very top while making everybody else pay the price for its economic failure. It is made all the more galling by the Chancellor’s previous promise that we are “all in this together”—although, admittedly, it is a phrase that we hear uttered from his lips a lot less these days. The Government may believe that the way to motivate people on low incomes is to pay them less and the way to motivate those on high incomes is to pay them more, but we think that that approach is misguided, at best. In these challenging economic times, our focus should be placed firmly on those who need our support the most. Our amendment therefore calls on the Government to look again at their decision to cut the top rate of income tax. We believe that that decision by the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats is completely indefensible, and that it is the wrong priority at the worst possible time.
In order for the Chancellor to make a properly informed decision on this vital issue next year, we need a proper assessment of the impact of the cut, as well as an analysis of how much the Treasury would gain if the additional rate were returned to 50% in 2014-15. The Chancellor, who claims to find tax avoidance “morally repugnant”, announced his millionaires’ tax cut in Budget 2012 on the grounds that the behavioural response to the 50p rate introduced by Labour was larger than expected. In other words, because some wealthy people found neat ways to avoid paying the top rate, the Chancellor has, in effect, rewarded them with a tax cut. It would be interesting to see his assessment of the behavioural response to his announcement in view of the extensive media coverage of bankers deferring their bonuses until this financial year in order to gain from the lower top rate, but given his apparent continued determination to fight European plans to cut bankers’ bonuses, I will not hold my breath.
Mr Robin Walker (Worcester) (Con): The hon. Lady is asking for an analysis of what the change in tax rate would do to the Government’s revenues. That is exactly what the previous Labour Government failed to deliver when they made their change. Does she not regret the fact that the Labour Government, in their 13 years in power, continued to levy a top rate of 40% and then made their change to the top rate so late in the day that it failed to raise any additional revenue either under their Government or, because they had not undertaken such a behavioural study of what might happen, under the Government who followed?
Catherine McKinnell: I do not follow the hon. Gentleman’s logic that that justifies a non-assessment at this stage. He knows very well that there has been a huge intake from the 50p tax rate which this Government fail to acknowledge. He also knows that we suffered a catastrophic international financial crisis in 2008 to which the Labour Government responded by ensuring that those who could bear it most would take the highest burden, therefore introducing the 50p tax rate. This Government took the first opportunity to abolish it, without even allowing enough time for proper analysis of its effect to take place.
The Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury (Mr David Gauke): The hon. Lady says that there was a huge intake from the 50p rate of income tax. What is her evidence for that?
Catherine McKinnell: HMRC’s report, “The Exchequer effect of the 50 per cent additional rate of income tax”, but I will go into that in more detail in due course.
The Prime Minister went on record and said in this Chamber that the 50p tax rate was cut because it did not raise any money—the Minister seems to have just made the same assertion—but page 39 of HMRC’s report makes it clear that it resulted in a yield of about £1.1 billion, which is hardly a sum to ignore in these straitened financial times. However, what stands out most from HMRC’s assessment—this point was also raised when we debated last year’s Finance Bill—is the number of times that the words “uncertain” and “uncertainty” appear; I nearly lost count, but it is a staggering 30 times. The Chancellor decided to give a tax cut to his millionaire pals before we had a clear picture of the impact of the 50p rate.
That is not just the view of the Opposition. Robert Chote, chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility, stated:
“This is a judgement based on not even a full year’s data, based in terms of how people have responded to the 50p rate, in particular in terms of those self assessment tax-payers.”
The Institute for Fiscal Studies said:
“By giving out £3 billion to well-off people who pay 50p tax…the Government is banking on a very, very uncertain amount of people changing their behaviour and paying more tax as a result of the fact that you’re taxing them…There is a lot of uncertainty, a lot of risk on this estimate.”
In its report on the 2012 Budget, the Treasury Committee concluded:
“The costs and benefits of reducing the additional tax rate to 45p are both highly uncertain, and could be significantly more or less than the cost included in the Budget. We recommend that HMRC publish in due course a comprehensive assessment of the effect on the Exchequer of the new 45p rate.”
We agree. We need a full and proper assessment of what effect the top rate tax cut has had on tax receipts and we need to be sure that the Government continue to estimate what the gain would be if the additional rate were returned to 50%. We need, as the IFS has previously suggested, to get a clear understanding of whether the short-run response to this tax cut has been symmetric to the introduction of the 50p rate. Will people continue to use the avoidance techniques that the Government clearly believe they employed to avoid the 50p rate, or will some or all of that activity come to an end as a result of the new 45p rate? The Government should commit to our amendment’s request for such a review, if they genuinely seek to maximise revenue to the Exchequer and not to give a tax break to their millionaire friends.
Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) (SNP): The hon. Lady is making a good case, particularly on the uncertainty about the reduced revenue yield, but even if the Government and the Red Book are correct and the loss of yield will be only £540 million over the next five years, I am sure she will agree that if £540 million is going spare it would be better to invest it in productive capacity for the future, rather than simply give it away in a tax cut that proves that we are not all in this together.
Catherine McKinnell: The hon. Gentleman makes an extremely strong point, and one that I have made repeatedly. This might seem like small change to the Chancellor, but it could make a very big difference to some of the people affected by his failing economic plan.
I am sure, given the concerns recently expressed by apparently senior Liberal Democrats, that Lib Dem Members will join us in calling for a commitment from their Conservative colleagues in the Government. Indeed, only last month a member of the Liberal Democrat tax working group stated:
“While the Treasury’s own figures about the 50p are highly questionable, the politics of cutting tax for the very rich make no sense; there is no reason why a 50p rate shouldn’t be part of a solution for tough times.”
Jonathan Edwards (Carmarthen East and Dinefwr) (PC): I agree with many of the hon. Lady’s points. Plaid Cymru will fight the next Westminster election on a pledge to reintroduce the 50p rate. Will the Labour party do the same?
Catherine McKinnell: We have made it perfectly clear from day one that we do not support the cut to the 50p rate now, and we call on the Government to analyse the impact of the introduction and premature removal of the 50p rate. When we come to publish our next manifesto, we will review the state of the economy and whether a 50p rate would be the right response. I hope that Members of other Opposition parties, as well as Liberal Democrats, will support our amendment, because it would help to establish whether the 50p rate would bring in the additional Exchequer revenue that was anticipated—but if the Government refuse to back it today, we will never know.
The President of the Liberal Democrats, the hon. Member for Westmorland and Lonsdale (Tim Farron), said:
“Cutting the top rate was a stupid thing to do. It probably raised up to £3bn a year. We should pledge to restore the 50p rate at the next election. It’s not enough to be fair, you have to be seen to be fair.”
Their current, or former, Treasury spokesman—I can never work out which he is—Lord Oakeshott—
Stephen Williams: He’s never been Treasury spokesman.
Catherine McKinnell: Okay. I am pleased that that has been clarified for the record. Other hon. Members will feel the same.
Lord Oakeshott said:
“In such hard times, we should never have rolled over when the Tories wanted to cut the 50p rate unless we got a mansion tax in return. At the next election, both the mansion tax and a 50p rate should be at the forefront of Lib Dem tax policy.”
I have news for him. Liberal Democrats have had the opportunity to vote for the mansion tax, and today they have the chance to vote for their 50p rate. They do not need to wait for the next manifesto. They can make it happen today. Lord Oakeshott’s is an interesting view, however, given the Liberal Democrats’ decision to vote against their own mansion tax policy twice in as many months. I would join him, however, in urging his party colleagues not to roll over for the Tories on this issue, but to support our amendment.
We are obviously disappointed that our amendment to clause 16 was not selected for debate. The clause introduces schedule 3, which provides for the cap on 11 named income tax reliefs for amounts greater than £50,000 or 25% of an individual’s income. This policy was first announced in 2012. Like many others, the Opposition are pleased that this provision no longer includes the original proposal to limit tax relief on charitable giving. In one of the several U-turns on last year’s omnishambles, the Chancellor was forced to back down on this ill-thought-through policy, which threatened the charitable sector with a cut of up to £500 million in income per year. A powerful campaign backed by more than 1,000 charities was given the very simple title, “Give it Back, George.”
Several concerns about clause 16 remain, however, particularly about its potential impact on entrepreneurialism and small businesses. The Association of Accounting Technicians believes that the restriction of small reliefs on losses runs counter to the Government’s apparent commitment to encourage new business start-ups. It stated:
“In the current economic climate, start-up businesses are likely to operate at a loss in their early years, therefore our view is that an imposition of an arbitrary cap will be a further obstacle to entrepreneurship… Furthermore, existing legislation already prohibits relief for ‘artificial losses’”.
That means that any genuine losses sustained in starting or developing a business should be relievable, in accordance with existing legislation, in a way that enables the entrepreneur to recover tax previously suffered as quickly as possible in order to help to fund their new venture.
The Chartered Institute of Taxation shares similar concerns, describing the cap as a “blunt instrument” that could have an
“adverse effect on genuine businesses and the UK economy”
and saying that
“it gives the wrong message to entrepreneurs thinking of setting up a business. The net effect could be to reduce the tax take rather than increase it.”
It has drawn particular attention to concerns that the cap will catch owners of genuine commercial businesses who happen to incur a loss, instead of a profit—for example, where a new business is being established; where a business is weathering economic conditions and concentrating on simply surviving until the climate has improved; and where there has been an exceptional level of business expenditure, such as on the purchase of a major item of machinery or the recruitment of additional staff in anticipation of expansion.
The Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales has said that the measure
“will hit small businesses by restricting loss relief for commercial losses. The measure will reduce cashflow, hamper business growth and could lead to small businesses that are experiencing difficulty in the current economic climate going bust”.
Surely even this Government would not want that outcome as a result of a Budget measure. I would therefore greatly welcome hearing from the Minister that the Chancellor might just be for turning on this issue.